The more frequently you look at data, the more noise you are disproportionally likely to get (rather than the valuable part, called the signal); hence the higher the noise-to-signal ratio. And there is a confusion which is not psychological at all, but inherent in the data itself. Say you look at information on a yearly basis, for stock prices, or the fertilizer sales of your father-in-law’s factory, or inflation numbers in Vladivostok. Assume further that for what you are observing, at a yearly frequency, the ratio of signal to noise is about one to one (half noise, half signal)—this means th
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“Heresies are experiments in man’s unsatisfied search for truth.” —
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“Money is like gasoline during a road trip. You don’t want to run out of gas on your trip, but you’re not doing a tour of gas stations.” —
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“If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run—and often in the short one—the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.” —
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“A work of art is the unique result of a unique temperament. Its beauty comes from the fact that the author is what he is. It has nothing to do with the fact that other people want what they want. Indeed, the moment that an artist takes notice of what other people want, and tries to supply the demand, he ceases to be an artist, and becomes a dull or an amusing craftsman, an honest or a dishonest tradesman. He has no further claim to be considered as an artist.” —
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“What should young people do with their lives today? Many things, obviously. But the most daring thing is to create stable communities in which the terrible disease of loneliness can be cured.” ― , Palm Sunday: An Autobiographical Collage
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“Those who seek liberation for themselves alone cannot become fully enlightened. Though it may be said that one who is not already liberated cannot liberate others, the very process of forgetting oneself to help others is itself liberating. Therefore, those who seek to benefit themselves alone actually harm themselves by doing so, while those who help others also help themselves by doing so.” — (1275–1351)
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“Be regular and orderly in your life like a bourgeois, so that you may be violent and original in your work.” —
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“After you have exhausted what there is in business, politics, conviviality, love, and so on—have found that none of these finally satisfy, or permanently wear—what remains? Nature remains; to bring out from their torpid recesses, the affinities of a man or woman with the open air, the trees, fields, the changes of seasons—the sun by day and the stars of heaven by night.” —
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“It is the nature of man to build the most complicated cage of rules and regulations in which to trap himself, and then, with equal ingenuity and zest, to bend his brain to the problem of wriggling triumphantly out again. Lent was a challenge; the game was to ferret out the loopholes.” — in Fast and Feast: Food in Medieval Society (Kudos to author Steve Hendricks, as I found this quote in The Oldest Cure in the World: Adventures in the Art and Science of Fasting.)
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“This is the true joy in life, the being used for a purpose recognized by yourself as a mighty one; the being thoroughly worn out before you are thrown on the scrap heap; the being a force of Nature instead of a feverish selfish little clod of ailments and grievances complaining that the world will not devote itself to making you happy.” —
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“Write to please just one person. If you open a window and make love to the world, so to speak, your story will get pneumonia.” —
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“We spend our entire lives trying to tell stories about ourselves—they’re the essence of memory. It is how we make living in this unfeeling accidental universe tolerable. That we call such a tendency ‘the narrative fallacy’ doesn’t mean it doesn’t also touch upon some aspect of the truth.” — , author of The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories
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“When I Heard the Learn’d Astronomer” When I heard the learn’d astronomer, When the proofs, the figures, were ranged in columns before me, When I was shown the charts and diagrams, to add, divide, and measure them, When I sitting heard the astronomer where he lectured with much applause in the lecture-room, How soon unaccountable I became tired and sick, Till rising and gliding out I wander’d off by myself, In the mystical moist night-air, and from time to time, Look’d up in perfect silence at the stars. — Walt Whitman, as recommended to me by Maria Popova, who invited me to read this poem alo
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“I sometimes wonder whether conspiracy theories are an attempt to re-enchant the world in a distorted way. It’s like religion knocking on the door and trying to come back in a strange and distorted form. A sense of mystery beyond our own understanding of the world. If you ever talk to conspiracy theorists, that’s the sense you get from them. A sort of almost romantic sense of awe that there is this dark mysterious thing that a rational thing could never penetrate.” —
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“Over the long term, the future is decided by optimists.” — of Kevin Kelly’s website
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“I believe that if, at the end of it all, according to our abilities, we have done something to make others a little happier, and something to make ourselves a little happier, that is about the best we can do. To make others less happy is a crime. To make ourselves unhappy is where all crime starts. We must try to contribute joy to the world. That is true no matter what our problems, our health, our circumstances. We must try.” — , “Go gentle into that good night.”
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“Intelligence is the capacity to perceive the essential, the what is; and to awaken this capacity, in oneself and in others, is education.” —
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“The people I distrust most are those who want to improve our lives but have only one course of action in mind.” —
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behind the pain someone is rejoicing behind the torture there is love who’s going to buy this bullshit if you don’t become the ocean you’ll be seasick every day — Leonard Cohen, “Good Advice For Someone Like Me”
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“The hardest thing to teach a student—and the hardest thing to believe consistently—is that there is nothing ‘out there’ to go and get. There is no part, no career, no opportunity for which you should be searching and scrounging and coveting. All of the preparation is within, and you keep yourself mentally and physically fit; you remain generous with yourself and others; you stay deeply in study about your craft. Whatever is yours will then arrive.” —
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“Most people end up being conformists; they adapt to prison life. A few become reformers; they fight for better lighting, better ventilation. Hardly anyone becomes a rebel, a revolutionary who breaks down the prison walls. You can only be a revolutionary when you see the prison walls in the first place.” —
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“The highest point a man can obtain is not Knowledge, or Virtue, or Goodness, or Victory, but something even greater, more heroic, and more despairing: Sacred Awe!” — , in Zorba the Greek.
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“Who can say if the thoughts you have in your mind as you read these words are the same thoughts I had in my mind as I typed them? We are different, you and I, and the qualia of our consciousnesses are as divergent as two stars at the ends of the universe. And yet, whatever has been lost in translation in the long journey of my thoughts through the maze of civilization to your mind, I think you do understand me, and you think you do understand me. Our minds managed to touch, if but briefly and imperfectly. Does the thought not make the universe seem just a bit kinder, a bit brighter, a bit war
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“Health lies in action, and so it graces youth. To be busy is the secret of grace, and half the secret of content. Let us ask the gods not for possessions, but for things to do; happiness is in making things rather than in consuming them.” — (Hat tip to Matt Mullenweg who introduced me to this quote in our most recent podcast conversation.)
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“The future is already here—it’s just not evenly distributed.” —
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“And it dawned on me that I might have to change my inner thought patterns...that I would have to start believing in possibilities that I wouldn’t have allowed before, that I had been closing my creativity down to a very narrow, controllable scale...that things had become too familiar and I might have to disorient myself.” —
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“In truth, O judges, while I wish to be adorned with every virtue, yet there is nothing which I can esteem more highly than being and appearing grateful. For this one virtue is not only the greatest, but is also the parent of all the other virtues.” —
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“Art should comfort the disturbed and disturb the comfortable.” —
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When in the night I await her coming, my life seems stopped. I ask myself: What are tributes, freedom, or youth compared to this treasured friend holding a flute? Look, she’s coming! She throws off her veil and watches me, steady and long. I say: “Was it you who dictated to Dante the pages of Hell?” And she answers: “I am the one.” — “The Muse” by Anna Akhmatova, translated by Stanley Burnshaw (Thank you to Dr. Fuerza del Mono Araña for sending this to me.)
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“Love does not consist of gazing at each other but in looking outward together in the same direction.” — , Wind, Sand and Stars
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“If” by . From Wikipedia: “Boxing great Muhammad Ali was known to carry the poem in his wallet throughout life as a guiding principle.” The legendary financier Carl Icahn, featured in last week’s 5BF, is also intimately familiar with this poem.
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“Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence.” ―
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“A mind all logic is like a knife all blade. It makes the hand bleed that uses it.” —
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“Home is not where you were born; home is where all your attempts to escape cease.” —
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“Always laugh when you can. It is cheap medicine.” —
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“To learn to be always in a state of meditation means never to let your vital energy wane. You would never allow it to do so if it were certain that you were to die tomorrow. It wanes because you forget about death. Grit your teeth, fix your gaze, and observe death at this moment. You have to feel it so strongly that it seems as if it’s attacking you. Fearless energy comes from this. At this moment, death is right before your eyes. It’s not something you can afford to neglect.” — (1579–1655)
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“I’ve always thought that a big laugh is a really loud noise from the soul saying, ‘Ain’t that the truth!’” —
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“Among those whom I like or admire, I can find no common denominator. But among those whom I love, I can: all of them make me laugh.” —
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“Study nature, love nature, stay close to nature. It will never fail you.” —
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“HAPPINESS. — A butterfly, which when pursued, seems always just beyond your grasp; but if you sit down quietly, may alight upon you.” — in The Daily Crescent (June, 1848)
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“I had broken myself of the habit of thinking in short song cycles and began reading longer and longer poems to see if I could remember anything I read about in the beginning. I trained my mind to do this, had cast off gloomy habits and learned to settle myself down. … I began cramming my brain with all kinds of deep poems. It seemed like I’d been pulling an empty wagon for a long time and now I was beginning to fill it up and would have to pull harder. I felt like I was coming out of the back pasture. I was changing in other ways, too. Things that used to affect me, didn’t affect me anymore.
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“I have learned that what I have not drawn I have never really seen, and that when I start drawing an ordinary thing, I realize how extraordinary it is, sheer miracle.” — , The Zen of Seeing
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“The purpose of art is not the release of a momentary ejection of adrenalin but is, rather, the gradual, lifelong construction of a state of wonder and serenity.” —
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“Don’t worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you’ll have to ram them down people’s throats.” —
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“Be regular and orderly in your life so that you may be violent and original in your work.” —
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“I’m trying to find these rare moments where you feel completely illuminated. Facts never illuminate you. The phone directory of Manhattan doesn’t illuminate you, although it has factually correct entries, millions of them. But these rare moments of illumination that you find when you read a great poem, you instantly know. You instantly feel this spark of illumination. You are almost stepping outside of yourself, and you see something sublime.” —
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“If you can’t read and write, you can’t think. Your thoughts are dispersed if you don’t know how to read and write. You’ve got to be able to look at your thoughts on paper and discover what a fool you were.” —
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“Don’t aim to be the best. Be the only.” This is one of Kevin Kelly’s favorite maxims, and it was one of my favorite segments from our recent in-person conversation. I’ll be rereading my heavily highlighted copy of his Excellent Advice for Living often. For an additional taste of Kevin’s wisdom, read his short and powerful essay “1,000 True Fans.”
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“The poet Rilke looked at a statue of Apollo about fifty years ago, and Apollo spoke to him. ‘You must change your life,’ he said. When true myth rises into consciousness, that is always its message. You must change your life.” —
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“Pessimism is an indulgence, orthodoxy is the enemy of invention, despair an insult to the imagination.” —
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“Most men pursue pleasure with such breathless haste that they hurry past it.” —
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“People usually consider walking on water or in thin air a miracle. But I think the real miracle is not to walk either on water or in thin air, but to walk on earth. Every day we are engaged in a miracle which we don’t even recognize: a blue sky, white clouds, green leaves, the black, curious eyes of a child—our own two eyes. All is a miracle.” — , The Miracle of Mindfulness: An Introduction to the Practice of Meditation
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“One of the symptoms of an approaching nervous breakdown is the belief that one’s work is terribly important.” ― , The Conquest of Happiness
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“Here is my secret. It is very simple: it is only with the heart that one can see rightly. What is essential is invisible to the eye.” —
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“The problem is no longer getting people to express themselves but providing little gaps of solitude and silence in which they might eventually find something to say. … What a relief to have nothing to say, the right to say nothing, because only then is there a chance of framing … the thing that might be worth saying.” —
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“I do not believe that sheer suffering teaches. If suffering alone taught, all the world would be wise, since everyone suffers. To suffering must be added mourning, understanding, patience, love, openness, and the willingness to remain vulnerable. All these and other factors combined, if the circumstances are right, can teach and can lead to rebirth.” —
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“The very secret of life for me, I believed, was to maintain in the midst of rushing events an inner tranquility.” —
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GOLD by Rumi, translated by Haleh Liza Gafori (@halehliza).
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“I want to risk hitting my head on the ceiling of my talent. I want to really test it out and say, ‘Okay, you're not that good. You just reached the level here.’ I don't ever want to fail, but I want to risk failure every time out of the gate.” —